I've been too lazy here in Florida to post any real updates, but thought I'd repeat this one from the Edge of Allegiance Blog:
Does anyone really expect George W. Bush to lose this November?
In spite of all the rumble and steam of the "Anyone But Bush" movement, the train has no track. It's crowded with disgruntled Deaniacs, Nader traitors, and everyone who's still complaining that Bush "stole" the election. Oh, and to be fair, me. But isn't this effort to dethrone King George lacking something important?
What's missing are the people rooting for John Kerry. Does anyone actually want this man as our President? Or do they just want him as a replacement for the current guy? In which case, why not just
be more honest and call this a recall election and let people like Gary Coleman run - I'd rather listen to him than Kerry any day. (which reminds of the time I discovered that Gary was working at my local Blockbuster - he told me he's a big Fletch fan, so he'd get my vote.)
There's two old lines which will come into play in this campaign: choosing the lesser of two evils, and people acting out of fear. People tend to be more afraid of the unknown, in this case Kerry. And as for evils, well, Kerry hasn't had a chance to really be evil yet - that's a role reserved for a sitting President - so, unfortunately, people will just vote out of fear.
Now, Kerry has some chance, but I wouldn't give him the Vegas odds.
To start with, he needs to make people want to vote for him outside of the rhetoric. Something superficial, like a running mate. Originally I'd have put my money on a Kerry/McCain ticket, but its pretty clear McCain has been convinced not to by the GOP (loyalty? Hell no - he's a politician. My theory? He's been promised the GOP nomination for Prez in 2008 over Cheney). Nope, its clear that Kerry needs Hillary Clinton. She may turn off a lot of voters, but it'll get many more voters to turn out at the polls. Mainly, women who typically shy from politics and voting booths. The announcement of a Clinton/Kerry Kerry/Clinton ticket would also add additional vigor to any last minute fundraising campaigns, especially third party groups like MoveOn.
Besides that, Kerry needs to hit the talk show circuit with some personality, because right now I think many Americans are picturing Treebeard the Ent whenever he speaks.
Anything new that happens in Iraq will only solidify George W.'s blindly loyal base, as well as attract swing voters. Another terrorist attack within our borders would have the opposite effect her than it did in Spain - it would be viewed as an attempt to effect our election, and Americans are far from complacent to more diplomatic efforts, let alone mass murder. Upon further failures or setbacks in Iraq, the Administration will make the argument that in the hands of a new President and staff things will only get MORE botched. And numbers regarding gas prices, job loss and growth, national spending, etc., can always be spun in one group's favor or the other. I doubt that his approval ratings can go any further down between now and November... so Democrats and the ABBers need to hope that absolutely nothing happens for the next four months.